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The Cone of Ernesto


Raf
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They're keeping an eye on a disturbance they think will turn into Ernesto. Rumor has it the storm will come straight toward Las Olas Boulevard in Fort Lauderdale.

Ok, I'm exaggerating, but I thought I'd reserve this space for Ernesto anyway.

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Fox news, which has had an attachment to a certain large private weather service, which I once worked for many moons ago, is already treating this storm as if it were a category 3 drawing a bead on New Orleans. It is as if, if it happens again, they want to be able to say "you heard it here first"...while if the storm fizzles, or hots somewhere far from New Orleans, they will fall back on "we didnt say for sure it was going to hit there." But, watching their broadcast, one can get the impression that this is just about what they are saying.

The idea is not a strange one in any private business...to convince the customer, or potential customer, that you are doing a better job. Where lives and property are at stake, I would stick with the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, who are answerable of course for their work, but who do not waste their efforts trying to convince their listeners how well they did.

Of course, in this case, they also have the most tools to work with, such as direct contact with hurricane hunter information, the best assortment of computer models, etc.

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In fact...the latest information available in the currect early morning advisory has the storm strengthening rapidly and shifts the forecast path quite a bit to the north and east from the previous forecast...taking it over Florida by Thursday or Friday...first sending it into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, then curving it into Florida from the west.

Edited by Lifted Up
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According to that last weather undergound update, they say it will be a tropical storm when it hits around the keys ... then they upgrade it to hurricane when it moves further up Florida. ....

That doesn't make sense, it shouldn't get stronger after it hits land, even though Florida is pretty flat. I bet it bounces of southeast Florida as a tropical storm and heads into the Atlantic.

Hurricane%20Isabel2.jpg

That is Isabel ... but nice cloud bank there ...

Edited by rhino
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Ok Brother RHino, Do you have room in the barn...? THat picture sure looks scary..

Believe it or not, I did sleep in a barn in Rome City, I was there for a Survival Class...maybe what I learned I needed...Hey, they could of been right!!!!!

Edited by likeaneagle
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80-85 mph winds....

Getting my Hurricaine Disaster List going..

1 bottle of wine

Artichoke dip

Brie cheese baked in puff pastry

a deck of cards..heehee

lots of candles and stored delights..

You've made a mistake there. You only have 1 bottle of wine. What good is that for a hurricane party!

hurricane_party.jpg

Lifted, help me out on this:

I've seen hurricanes. I've lived through hurricanes. That pic is no hurricane.

Raf, according to the properties of the pic, that was Isabel.

Edited by moony3424
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I've seen hurricanes. I've lived through hurricanes. That pic is no hurricane.

Now Raf, how do you really see a hurricane? Little pieces at a time unless you are in outer space, or maybe at 60,000 feet.

It says that is Isabel ... I would guess it is a small tornado maybe, spawned from an outer band ... it is not the whole hurricane ... that nice big curved bank ... hmmmm, not sure that could be a big tornado, just a nice shot.

Anyway, feel free to give your interpretation. :evilshades:

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ok, well, I just did a picture search for hurricane, and this was cool ... but even snopes says ... "Even if these images did depict the approach of a hurricane, they're too old to be photographs of Hurricane Isabel "

So like I said, cool pic of a nice cloud bank ... whether it is and outer band or something in the midwest, even snopes doesn't know. But snopes also said that first pic was maybe from a cyclone.

I was just trying to add some atmosphere to the thread.

Maybe someone will eventually recognize that structure. The curve in the big cloud bank seems big for a tornado, but small for a front? Even the weather channel guy didn't seem conclusive.

In the mean time, tell me if this is a hurricane ...

topart2.jpg

If I coulda found a shot of a large red splotch on Bourbon Street, I coulda said ...

"there is a pic of 3 hurricanes"

:evilshades:

Edited by rhino
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