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The WAG of Gustav


Raf
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After Tropical Storm Fay did absolutely nothing the forecasters said it was going to do, I decided I would no longer name these threads after the "cones," but instead would call them WAGs, because these are, frankly, educated but wild-a-- guesses.

So, here's the WAG of Gustav.

at200807.gif

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The Countess and I moved this year, one of the reasons being to eliminate the need to evacuate. Of course, a REAL storm running right over us would be disastrous, but we're far enough from the coast that a storm surge isn't a problem anymore.

Still to early to get really concerned, though.

George

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This from Rush Limbaugh's show today.

RUSH: I must inform you of a weather situation that poses a great threat. There is a hurricane currently making its way toward the southern peninsula of Haiti called Gustav. The National Hurricane Center's track forecast turns this into a category five hurricane by Sunday or Monday, and the many models are fairly close in this hurricane going into the western Gulf, maybe Texas, Mexico. But one model, the model that I know that the National Hurricane Center relies on the most called the GFDL, takes this baby right for New Orleans. Can you say Katrina 2? This hurricane, if that model is correct, will bear down cat five on New Orleans on day one or day two of the Republican convention in St. Paul.

Can I fill in the blanks here for you? The Drive-By Media will point out that the Republicans -- the rich Republicans in their private jets with their diamonds and their limousines -- are in St. Paul debating the continuation of tax cuts for the rich and the elimination of the death tax, and then they will cut to photos of Obama and Michelle laying sandbags in the French Quarter and passing out water bottles. If that model is correct, the media will, en masse, leave St. Paul. There will be no media left to cover the Republican convention. Do you know how many delegates there are in Denver? Roughly 4,000. You know how many credentialed Drive-Bys are there? Twenty thousand, five times the number of delegates. Ha! Of course, it's a long way out, and it's impossible this far out to tell where this thing going to go, but if that model holds steady and turns out to be right, you have been warned.

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This from Rush Limbaugh's show today.

RUSH: I must inform you of a weather situation that poses a great threat. There is a hurricane currently making its way toward the southern peninsula of Haiti called Gustav. The National Hurricane Center's track forecast turns this into a category five hurricane by Sunday or Monday, and the many models are fairly close in this hurricane going into the western Gulf, maybe Texas, Mexico. But one model, the model that I know that the National Hurricane Center relies on the most called the GFDL, takes this baby right for New Orleans. Can you say Katrina 2? This hurricane, if that model is correct, will bear down cat five on New Orleans on day one or day two of the Republican convention in St. Paul.

Can I fill in the blanks here for you? The Drive-By Media will point out that the Republicans -- the rich Republicans in their private jets with their diamonds and their limousines -- are in St. Paul debating the continuation of tax cuts for the rich and the elimination of the death tax, and then they will cut to photos of Obama and Michelle laying sandbags in the French Quarter and passing out water bottles. If that model is correct, the media will, en masse, leave St. Paul. There will be no media left to cover the Republican convention. Do you know how many delegates there are in Denver? Roughly 4,000. You know how many credentialed Drive-Bys are there? Twenty thousand, five times the number of delegates. Ha! Of course, it's a long way out, and it's impossible this far out to tell where this thing going to go, but if that model holds steady and turns out to be right, you have been warned.

I hope that wherever it hits, it is sparsely populated and somewhere that can recover ok. As far as the political ramifications, I would hope that, unlike in the wake of Katrina, everyone will join together to help the victims of the hurricane rather than the constant criticism in the media like occurred last time. If it does occur during the Republican convention, I would hope that their first priority would be in doing what is right and if Congress has to be back in session to pass some quick bills to help those people out, they can do so.

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Maybe those religious zealots who were praying for it to rain on Obama's outdoors speech tonight had their prayers backfire. Maybe God is gonna rain on the RNC instead to teach them a lesson!

~HAP

edited to note that I am just JOKING! I truely pray for everyone's safety.

Edited by HAPe4me
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Boy, are there no depths those dammed Dimmycrats won't sink to?

Honestly, now they're using the weather to disrupt the Republican Convention!

I'm so thankful that Rush can keep us apprised of these disturbing details...

Actually, that's precisely the type of thing that we would have believed in TWI. That's why "the adversary" sent these rarely seen weather attacks sometimes called "thunder storms" to the Rock of Ages some summers. You would think that after the Rock of Ages terminated, Ohio never had another thunderstorm. Also, the adversary would make it hot in the summertime to inconvenience us and make us drink more water during the Rock of Ages.

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the model they're showing on the weather here in DFW tonight has it making it to "only" a Cat3 when it hits between New Orleans and Houston... and they're leaning towards Houston... but those things change all the time.

Yeah, you Dallasites would like that wouldn't you? With Houston gone, you'd be Texas's #5 city!

Actually, most of the models I've seen seem to bear down on New Orleans.

George

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My son n law left for training for Air National Guard of NewHampshire. He is nowin Mississippi and class in cancelled for Monday. Looks like he cannot evacuate but will be helping out Mississippi. Hope this makes sence. Iam laying bed reading emails and such..I just had 2 stents placed in bileducts..Im buzzing alittle:)

Edited by likeaneagle
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I'm really not in the mood for a hurricane.

Yeah, I'm 80 miles from the coast.... and so? I still have memories of 2005, Katrina and Rita, and the evacuation of Houston, and the weeks of "brown outs," and the limbs and trees down, and the flooding and wondering what the heck? When can we get back to normal? Which has never happened by the way. Katrina and Rita redefined "normal" for me and mine, and the city of Houston.

Having 18 foot ceilings in my house, glass walls, surrounded by lotza big trees....umm, shall I say? I am a bit concerned? Lord help you guys in FL......

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My son n law left for training for Air National Guard of NewHampshire. He is nowin Mississippi and class in cancelled for Monday. Looks like he cannot evacuate but will be helping out Mississippi. Hope this makes sence. Iam laying bed reading emails and such..I just had 2 stents placed in bileducts..Im buzzing alittle:)

((((Likeaneagle))))),

Josh and I are praying for everyone's safety; and You and Your Son!!!! I pray You rest well and that your treatment is very healing!

With Love, RainbowsGirl

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Gustav has been pretty much sticking to its track, he exception being a peculiar jump south a couple of days ago. Prayers and precautions to anyone in her path.

Hanna, on the other hand, is living up to its thread as a total WAG.

Next week is gonna be a bad one.

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This does look really bad ... but especially for New Orleans, if it were to head there ... maybe they will reconsider rebuilding in low areas if they get hit again ...

I know many that rebuilt after Katrina ... maybe it would be time to sacrifice the low areas to the sea ... or to parks ... as noble as it seems to rebuild the city, why put government funds into building below sea level .. we are not Holland ... we have more land ...

the gulf water is hot ... this looks to be bad coming in ... yikes ... I'm feeling sick again, like last time ... just because I know so many in New Orleans ...

at200807_windprob64.gif

Edited by rhino
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maybe they will reconsider rebuilding in low areas if they get hit again ...

I know many that rebuilt after Katrina ... maybe it would be time to sacrifice the low areas to the sea ... or to parks ... as noble as it seems to rebuild the city, why put government funds into building below sea level .

I went last year to N.O and as much as I love New Orleans as a city, I was wondering if it were time to allow the seas to claim it.

Im not an engineer but even I could see the inherent weaknesses in the protection system that was being built. If it is to be saved then a concerted effort to build it right, proper and strong as possible would be in order..Half measures that may or may not hold, or cutting corners for financial reasons that still leave the area vulnerable really are a waste of money and time. To my untrained eye that appeared to be the strategy--to build what they could and combine it liberally with prayer and hope, instead of what they really needed to build. To me that invites disaster, which I certainly hope that I am wrong

Aside from all that Im doing my 'prayer and hoping' part that it misses N.O. and finds someplace that will do as little damage as possible.

This is making me feel sick

Good Luck everyone out there

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Thank God they are evacuating this time and it seems to be going relatively smoothly. I do hope they reconsider rebuilding, too, Rhino. Such a waste of dollars and tax revenue. I'm really hoping it's not as bad as it looks like it will be.

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