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The Cone Of Florence

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Hey Raf!

Your insight on the cone of uncertainty for Flo would be much appreciated. I just watched Batshit Pat Robertson rebuke the storm in da name of Geeezus, and I’d like to see how much Geeezus listens to him. Sure do appreciate it!

 

Edited by modcat5
Thread title edited to remove my name (Raf).

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I think a TWI meteorologist would probably mark and avoid Florence.

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152637_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

This is looking ugly. Please be advised that I am writing this at 5 p.m. eastern on Sept. 12. The map attached will change over time, so what I write now may not be reflected in what you see depending on when you read this.

I've lived through a few of these storms, including Irma last year, but here in South Florida we're a bit better prepared for this. We expect these storms now and then. We have very few hills, which means very few valleys, which means flooding is not the monster issue here that it can be in places like the Carolinas.

I wouldn't trade places with the Carolinas right now for anything. This forecast has a major hurricane parked just offshore starting Thursday, weakening to "just" a hurricane as it makes landfall 8 a.m. Saturday. 

It appears from the forecast that those north of the storm will be harder hit than those south, but the coast of both Carolinas are about to take a beating the likes of which they have not seen in quite some time. By contrast, every storm I've lived and worked through has come and gone in a matter of hours (as few as five, as many as 18).

I'm not going to repeat all the advice you've probably been hearing for days already. 

When this is over, we'll be posting the best places to send aid for those who need it most.

Stay safe.

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The circles along the path tell you only where the storm's eye is going to be and when it's going to be there. It is of little importance to anyone deciding whether or not to be prepared. Hurricane force winds are extending 70 miles out from the center, and tropical storm force winds are out nearly 200 miles. So that's about 350-400 miles of really nasty weather taking aim for the Carolinas. From that perspective, the circles along the path aren't telling you anything of practical value.

A circle with an M means it's a major hurricane (category 3 or higher). A circle with an H means it's category 1 or 2. 

A circle with a T means tropical storm, and a circle with a D means tropical depression. By the time you see a T or D, there's no longer an "eye."

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Thanks Raf

I watched NBC news tonight on this – it’s looking pretty damn scary

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No M's in the forecast anymore. That's good as far as wind speed is concerned; meaningless as far as water. Stay safe and dry, everyone.

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Everything looks better as far as wind speed is concerned. The storm arrives earlier than originally projected (Friday at 2 p.m.) and it's a tropical storm 12 hours after that.

That's the good news.

The bad news is, they're getting pelted for a full 24 hours BEFORE the storm makes landfall, and wind is not the big issue with this storm: Water is. Hurricane intensity does not measure water. So even though it's not a "major hurricane" as measure by the category strength, this can still be a monster in terms of how much water we see. 

By the time of this posting (5 p.m. Thursday), those who haven't evacuated probably can't. Maybe I'm wrong. Check your local authorities. You know your local geography. Do what you can and must.

Stay dry.

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Looks like Florence foesn’t speak English and ignores Batshit Pat and The Fox at Crotchaven too!

North side of the largest part of the storm is gonna park right over Norfolk and Virginia Beach VA. So much for Pat and his ooga booga prayers. Rosie the Liar is from New Bern, NC. She’s on the Social Register there under her maiden name, Fox. So, New Bern is already under water because of the Neuse River flooding and the hurricane hasn’t even hit land yet. Then, it’s heading north to Ohio! Not rejoicing in inquity......just saying Mother Nature is NOT subject to the phony faith of self-deluded fools. 

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It's been just about 10 years to the day that Hurricane Ike marched through Ohio. Lost my power for 6 days with that one.

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