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The Cone of Dorian


Raf
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See that lake in the lower middle of Florida? The higher north of that lake, the better off I am. But there are other GSers who are in Florida as well, so if you're going to pray, make it that everyone is safe and not that the storm goes one way or another.

205152_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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One of the oddest courses I've seen in a storm. At this stage I'd be more worried if I lived in London than I am here in South Florida.

Carolinas, be prepared. These shifting cones won't last forever

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Point of clarification:

The graphic in the opening post is live and linked to the national hurricane center. That means when they update the forecast, the graphic in the opening post will change to reflect it.

So if you see us all posting about something that makes no sense when you look at the map, that's why.

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The orange X is trending west or west-southwest, so the southeastern most part of Texas should keep a close watch, but the rest of the state seems fairly ok. As always, that could change as the hours pass.

The red x (easternmost as of this writing) is the one I'm concerned about. I wasn't worried about Dorian until our supermarkets were raided, and I was underprepared for my family. Fortunately, we're only getting a token hit (a few gusty thunderstorms every few hours. Nothing we're not used to in the summertime/rainy season).

 

 

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I'm a bit concerned for central Texas because I know people who live there.

People everywhere panic and raid the supermarkets at the report of bad weather.    That concerns me less nowadays because A) we're comfortable cooking or just microwaving if we need to       B) I have some supermarkets and places to buy food within 3 blocks           C)  My neighbors don't worry about hurricanes because they haven't come this way for quite some time, if ever  So, we get heavy storms that leave within 12-24 hours depending on the severity, in the worse-case.    

As for the rest of you, stay careful out there. 

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So.
Dorian spared my neck of the woods, but for everyone else on the coast, keep your eyes open and stay safe. 

Fernand (the storm George discussed) looks like it will not reach hurricane strength but it is a tropical storm now and will hit Mexico as one. By the time its remnants hit south Texas, it doesn't look like it will be much more than a nuisance.

As always, that forecast could change.

Here's Fernand's cone:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/174935.shtml?cone#contents

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That part of the Mexican coast is pretty sparsely populated, so even when Fermand makes landfall, it shouldn't impact too many people. 

When the massive Hurricane Gilbert hit 30 years ago, it went ashore about the same place.  The only casualties from that one were people on a bus, evacuating, which fell into a river.

George

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