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Rationalization of Failed Prediction


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In another Thread, a poster mentioned that a comment I made about Predictive Failure and the ratiuonalization therof was worthy of a thread.

So heres the thread.

Having done some research on the subject I feel justified in saying that the explaining away of failed Predictions in cults tends to follow a specific pattern.

I wont even demonstrate this pattern from Jehovahs Witnesses, the cult I was involved in, rather, I will demonstrate it from Adventism.

Reference is :

"The Great Controversy" (1888) Author, Ellen G White.

Chapter: "What is the Sanctuary ?"

QUOTE:... "The scripture which above all others had been both the foundation and the central pillar of the advent faith was the declaration: "Unto two thousand and three hundred days; then shall the sanctuary be cleansed." Daniel 8:14. These had been familiar words to all believers in the Lord's soon coming. By the lips of thousands was this prophecy repeated as the watchword of their faith. All felt that upon the events therein foretold depended their brightest expectations and most cherished hopes. These prophetic days had been shown to terminate in the autumn of 1844. In common with the rest of the Christian world, Adventists then held that the earth, or some portion of it, was the sanctuary. They understood that the cleansing of the sanctuary was the purification of the earth by the fires of the last great day, and that this would take place at the second advent. Hence the conclusion that Christ would return to the earth in 1844. But the appointed time had passed, and the Lord had not appeared. The believers knew that God's word could not fail; their interpretation of the prophecy must be at fault; but where was the mistake? Many rashly cut the knot of difficulty by denying that the 2300 days ended in 1844. No reason could be given for this except that Christ had not come at the time they expected Him. They argued that if the prophetic days had ended in 1844, Christ would then have returned to cleanse the sanctuary by the purification of the earth by fire; and that since He had not come, the days could not have ended"..End quote.

So, expected events not occuring on time, they diligently Searched the scriptures. Searching for "new light" from the Lord.

QUOTE:... "To accept this conclusion was to renounce the former reckoning of the prophetic periods. The 2300 days had been found to begin when the commandment of Artaxerxes for the restoration and building of Jerusalem went into effect, in the autumn of 457 B.C. Taking this as the starting point, there was perfect harmony in the application of all the events foretold in the explanation of that period in Daniel 9:25-27. Sixty-nine weeks, the first 483 of the 2300 years, were to reach to the Messiah, the Anointed One; and Christ's baptism and anointing by the Holy Spirit, A.D. 27, exactly fulfilled the specification. In the midst of the seventieth week, Messiah was to be cut off. Three and a half years after His baptism, Christ was crucified, in the spring of A.D. 31. The seventy weeks, or 490 years, were to pertain especially to the Jews. At the expiration of this period the nation sealed its rejection of Christ by the persecution of His disciples, and the apostles turned to the Gentiles, A.D. 34. The first 490 years of the 2300 having then ended, 1810 years would remain. From A.D. 34, 1810 years extend to 1844. "Then," said the angel, "shall the sanctuary be cleansed." All the preceding specifications of the prophecy had been unquestionably fulfilled at the time appointed. With this reckoning, all was clear and harmonious, except that it was not seen that any event answering to the cleansing of the sanctuary had taken place in 1844. To deny that the days ended at that time was to involve the whole question in confusion, and to renounce positions which had been established by unmistakable fulfillments of prophecy."End Quote.

Be it noted that the last consideration possible is that The SACRED MATHEMATICS could be in error . 2520 - 607 = 1914!! Who can deny that is true??

QUOTE... "The question, What is the sanctuary? is clearly answered in the Scriptures. The term "sanctuary," as used in the Bible, refers, first, to the tabernacle built by Moses, as a pattern of heavenly things; and, secondly, to the "true tabernacle" in heaven, to which the earthly sanctuary pointed. At the death of Christ the typical service ended. The "true tabernacle" in heaven is the sanctuary of the new covenant. And as the prophecy of Daniel 8:14 is fulfilled in this dispensation, the sanctuary to which it refers must be the sanctuary of the new covenant. At the termination of the 2300 days, in 1844, there had been no sanctuary on earth for many centuries. Thus the prophecy, "Unto two thousand and three hundred days; then shall the sanctuary be cleansed," unquestionably points to the sanctuary in heaven.Thus those who followed in the light of the prophetic word saw that, instead of coming to the earth at the termination of the 2300 days in 1844, Christ then entered the most holy place of the heavenly sanctuary to perform the closing work of atonement preparatory to His coming."End Quote.

At last, Light! Of course, the "Fair weather" believers will not SEE the newly revealed truth of the INVISIBLE FULFILLMENT. But those with understanding shall see thru the eyes of faith. And so the LITERAL expectation becomes fullfilled in a SPIRITUAL or INVISIBLE event.

So the Adventist prophecy was deemed to have been fulfilled invisibly. The expected literal return in 1844 became the Invisible return of 1844.

QUOTE:... The mistake had not been in the reckoning of the prophetic periods, but in the event to take place at the end of the 2300 days. Through this error the believers had suffered disappointment, yet all that was foretold by the prophecy, and all that they had any Scripture warrant to expect, had been accomplished. At the very time when they were lamenting the failure of their hopes, the event had taken place which was foretold by the message..End Quote

Now that is not the end of the sequence, included in the sequence is the discovery of the necessity of reinaugurating "Pure Worship" rituals that have been, until this time, lost to the Church.

I'll post details on that in a second post I think.

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Further from "The Great Controversy" (1888 edition).

QUOTE: The mistake had not been in the reckoning of the prophetic periods, but in the event to take place at the end of the 2300 days. Through this error the believers had suffered disappointment, yet all that was foretold by the prophecy, and all that they had any Scripture warrant to expect, had been accomplished. At the very time when they were lamenting the failure of their hopes, the event had taken place which was foretold by the message.End Quote.

Astute readers will note the profession of penitence and unworthyness on the part of Church Followers and Leaders.

This "penitence" sets the stage for the necessity of Purification within the church.

QUOTE..."But the people were not yet ready to meet their Lord. There was still a work of preparation to be accomplished for them. Light was to be given, directing their minds to the temple of God in heaven; and as they should by faith follow their High Priest in His ministration there, new duties would be revealed. Another message of warning and instruction was to be given to the church. Says the prophet: "Who may abide the day of His coming? and who shall stand when He appeareth?"

It only remains for the "Lost" pure worship rituals to be revealed by Revelation:

QUOTE: Within the holy of holies, in the sanctuary in heaven, the divine law is sacredly enshrined--the law that was spoken by God Himself amid the thunders of Sinai and written with His own finger on the tables of stone.Those who arrived at an understanding of this important point were thus led to see the sacred, unchanging character of the divine law. They saw, as never before, the force of the Saviour's words: "Till heaven and earth pass, one jot or one tittle shall in no wise pass from the law." .. "All His commandments are sure. They stand fast for ever and ever." ..In the very bosom of the Decalogue is the fourth commandment, as it was first proclaimed: "Remember the Sabbath day, to keep it holy....The Spirit of God impressed the hearts of those students of His word. The conviction was urged upon them that they had ignorantly transgressed this precept by disregarding the Creator's rest day. They had been honestly seeking to know and to do God's will; now, as they saw themselves transgressors of His law, sorrow filled their hearts"... End Quote.

It may be (as in the Jehovahs Witnesses) that there is "false worship" ritual being practised that needs be abandoned. This is the reason the Church was not worthy to recieve Him at the appointed time.

But in the Adventist case it is necessary that the observation of the "Sabbath" be reinaugurated.

The Sabbath observation doctrine was revealed...from memory...about 18 months after the 1844 "Disappointment".

The Cycle is complete.

Now of course it is very possible that this notion applies not only to predictions but to the necessity to change any major doctrine within the Church, and I was wondering whether readers can think of any parallel occurences within TWI history.

Many thanks.

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I think there've been quite a few.

Back in the mid-70's Mr. Wierwille was playing quite the fear-monger about all sorts of secret government events. The "Illuminati" was out to subvert America and overthrough our constitution!

And what were we supposed to do about it? Well, we were advised to assemble a survival kit (I ferget the cutesy TWI name for it now), with millet for food (YUMMY!), warm clothes, maps, matches, a gun, plenty of ammo, and various and sundry other goodies. We were supposed to keep this kit available at all times, so, given the word from "leadership" we could just grab our backpack and head for the hills (And just what were we gonna do once we got there? I haven't a clue...).

Anyway, the evil takeover by the Illuminati never took place, but of course there was a very good reason for that. The "BELIEVERS" in TWI had prayed so hard that the devil just couldn't bring it to pass. WOW! Isn't that amazing? You never knew we were so close to annihilation did you?

A few years later the 'ol evil Illuminati was at it again, and word came down from HQ that we should be ready again to take to the hills on a moments notice. But, wouldn't ya know, the faithful prayer of all those righteous Wayfers subverted the devil's plan again!

I've heard of several other imminent disasters that were averted in the last second by - you guessed it - the faithful, fervent prayer of the WayWorld believers. I know the Y2K was also billed as a coming meltdown of life as we know it, and blah, blah, blah, faithful prayer, standing in the gap, blah, blah, blah, and certain destruction was avoided thanks to the wonderous ministry of the Way...

But, in a larger sense, doesn't religion do this kinda thing all the time?

Somebody's sick, so they get prayed for. They don't get better, weeellll, they must be REALLY important to God, so the devil is working overtime to keep them sick!

Or if they get better HALLELUJAH! The Lord is working His divine plan!

Or if they die, well, then it gets a little more complicated. We have to say stuff like, "Well, it's all in God's hands. He knows what He's doing!" "It's all part of HIS plan!" (gosh, nifty plan, huh?).

There's ready-made spin built into theology to explain away any result. God gets credit for any good, the devil gets the blame for anything bad, and anything we don't understand, well, It's just too big for us!

Isn't that convenient?

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I don't think the Way's eschatology by itself is as entertaining and complex. Not having really attained within the inner circle of Way initiates, I suppose I can only speak of my own encounters with their "milk" doctrines. The essential eschatology of the Way consisted of the following: we live within the dispensation of grace which commenced on Pentecost, to terminate with our "gathering together" (1 Thess. 4; 1 Cor.15) to Christ (= the "rapture") - the timing of which event is not indicated by any true or false signs, miracles and wonders in the world.

It could happen in a thousand years - or it can before I end typing this. As far as the Book of Revelation and the apocalypses found in the Gospels are concerned, those were regarded as addressed to Israel, as not pertaining to the members of the Church or body of Christ at all. On the grand scale next to the other religions you describe, the Way's eschatology was quite static and not very colorful by comparison.

So any special "prophecies" or "revelations" may have tended to be more the short term, "Dead Zone" type

(as featured in Christopher Walken's hilarious "Trivial Prophet" skit from SNL a few years ago). Or oft pertaining to a "lack of white corpsucles" during prayers of healing someone. Or guessing which devil was giving one a headache.

But grand "prophecies" and predictions regarding a change in the spiritual or Biblical dispensations in which we lived - aside from perhaps some activities I've heard the Way Corp. undergo through a conspiratorial, paranoid take on current political and world events (as described by Geo above) - appear lacking in my view. But I only speak from my own personal viewpoint and experience.

I bet those who were in the Corp. could proivde more colorful experiences.

Danny

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Things happening invisibly is such a convenience as is things being changed because of prayer (when there was no demonstrable danger in the first place.

No doubt somebody prayed the WMDs out of existence too!

I am reminded of a passage in Brideshead Revisited when Rex Mottram is seeing Fr Mowbray to receive instruction about becoming a Catholic in order that he might marry Julia Flyte.

Fr Mowbray asks him to think about the Pope looking out of his window and saying "it's going to rain today."

Rex said that he was sure that it would rain as the Pope had said it.

Fr Mowbray countered "but supposing it didn't rain - what then?"

Rex replies: "It must be raining spiritually then, it's just that we are too sinful to see it!"

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George said:

Quote:… “we were advised to assemble a survival kit (I ferget the cutesy TWI name for it now), with millet for food (YUMMY!), warm clothes, maps, matches, a gun, plenty of ammo, and various and sundry other goodies. We were supposed to keep this kit available at all times, so, given the word from "leadership" we could just grab our backpack and head for the hills

Anyway, the evil takeover by the Illuminati never took place, but of course there was a very good reason for that. The "BELIEVERS" in TWI had prayed so hard that the devil just couldn't bring it to pass. “…End Quote.

Interesting George, Looks like the Way leadership have a tendancy to take the other tack then, instead of the Church being “impure” and preventing Christ returning as scheduled (Lest He have to destroy them) The Way Leadership play the inverse, that the Church is so ”holy” that it stopped the scheduled event with the power of its prayers.

George also says:

Quote: “I've heard of several other imminent disasters that were averted in the last second by - you guessed it - the faithful, fervent prayer of the WayWorld believers. I know the Y2K was also billed as a coming meltdown of life as we know it, and blah, blah, blah, faithful prayer, standing in the gap,..”End Quote.

I was hanging out with adherents of the “Christian Identity Ministries” in 1999.

Come Millennium eve, George, being a regular attendee at their home meetings, I had gone along with the plans and stockpiled food and water for when the computers crashed and brought the “system” to its knees. Didn’t happen though.

Took me 12 months to get rid of all that canned food.

icon_rolleyes.gif:rolleyes:-->

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Posted By George:

quote:
There's ready-made spin built into theology to explain away any result. God gets credit for any good, the devil gets the blame for anything bad, and anything we don't understand, well, It's just too big for us!

George, "Some" theology - or even "most" theology may hold to these rationalizations - but not all theology. (Just for the record)

icon_smile.gif:)-->

Goey

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This is all so intersting.

Ellen's rationalization...its' embarassing for somebody who wrote so well and meaningfully on other subjects. i loved the book 'Patriarchs & Prophets" and the one on Love. And the first half of the book from which you quote. I read her extensively before I realized she was Adventist. Are her writings used by the JW's as well?

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TheEvan:

The writings of Ellen White are certainly not used by Jehovahs Witlesses. She is purely the Adventist prophetess. They call her writings'The Spirit of Prophecy".

Of course, the book "Great Controversy" (Which I quoted from)was written in 1888 (?) which is 44 years AFTER the period that she is discussing.

Time alters memory.

To know what was truly felt, stated and 'expected' back in 1844 a reader would have to research material original in 1844 or prior.

Interestingly Adventists themselves publish much material reproducing 1840-1844 original publications. So an investigator can source material easily.

This is probably the reason why so many cult experts who are writing books upon the subject of predictive failures refer to Adventist examples.

The Witnesses history pertaining to concealment of "embarrassing information" is much more extensive. But source material is not easy to obtain.

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Refiner, actually The Way is adamant the Word tells us we will not know the time or season of Jesus Christ return. As stated by TheInvisibleDan. And I don't think George Aar thinks they teach that. I could be wrong on that. If I am I know he will correct me. icon_smile.gif:)-->

However, as George Aar stated they teach the stopping or starting of things based on their "household believing", whichever direction is most advantageous to do so. As far as healing goes, for the most part they teach if someone dies it is because they gave up. I was told that VPW died because he stopped willing to live. This handy explanation of theirs also includes the adversary getting in when it works to their advantage. For someone to just plain be sick and then get healed usually requires some dissection into the person's life to see where they let their guard down. That person may never be told of it but chances are they are being spoken about by their leadership.

They believe George Bush made it to this Presidency because they came together as a household and believed it into being. (I preferred him over the alternative myself) Today they may teach something else, maybe even something like the spin they put on LCM being the right man for the job at the time.

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Houseis said:

Quote: "For someone to just plain be sick and then get healed usually requires some dissection into the person's life to see where they let their guard down."...

The logical extension of this might be that "worldly" medicine is not needed to heal the sick, rather prayer is needed. icon_eek.gif

Does TWI discourage formal medical treatment of ailments?

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No, they include medical treatment for ailments. They consider it part of God's working in the situation. But the source of the illness is the questionable part. And even that varies on who it is that is sick. I remember LCM being ill once and just wasn't able to overcome it. Soon afterwards the 'believer doctor' that was caring for him revealed some lack in his life and thus it was explained off as the doctors problem rather than that of LCM's.

The thing about that ministry is just when you think you have an understanding of their doctrine they up and change it on you. Something about keeping the disciples off balance, making for an easier target to control.

Gosh have I completely run a muck in my direction here. icon_razz.gif:P-->

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House is:

Quote - "Soon afterwards the 'believer doctor' that was caring for him revealed some lack in his life and thus it was explained off as the doctors problem rather than that of LCM's."

Hmm, well I suppose the image of the infallible leader has to be maintained.

Obviously in this case LCM was a "suffering prophet" carrying the burdens of those around him who were weaker in faith.

Such love hath no man...

Quote: "The thing about that ministry is just when you think you have an understanding of their doctrine they up and change it on you. Something about keeping the disciples off balance, making for an easier target to control."

Certainly appears to be the case. Of course, I think Churches dont like to have to alter "truth" (else how was it "truth" in the first place) still, events in the real world (such as the collapse of Communism) cause them to have to change statements they made that Gorbachev was the "Beast" 666.

Very inconvenient that.

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That particular church seems to have mastered an explanation. In part having to do with whomever it was stating the truth in the first place. When it was VPW it was 'the gospel' but when he gave the reins over to LCM and he took us places VPW had not it was considered an accomplishment due to the springboard on which LCM could work from. Taking us higher, thus it did not negate the truth but rather delved deeper into God's understanding of the particular matter. Then because LCM had great difficulty keeping it in his pants (well he learned that from the same source also, but that is another story) he lost the reins and it was given over to the evil fox (her middle name is Fox by the way). Now she can and does say she has a springboard to work from. But the tricky part there is she reverted back to the first in a hope that the disciples would forget the second. When it is convenient! If there was something good he did then it is still okay to mention the source under your breath while coughing, so as to not actually say the words LCM. But if there was some control points she does not want to take credit for she blames them off on the second. icon_rolleyes.gif:rolleyes:-->

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Goey,

Re:"George, 'Some' theology - or even 'most' theology may hold to these rationalizations - but not all theology. (Just for the record)"

I dunno. Whenever the subject is invisible, inaudible (at least to the unwashed heathen), and ethereal I think the capacity for spin is there, whether or not the adherents utilize that capacity or are even aware of it.

When there's nothing physical to prove or disprove what the preacher's saying there's a built-in BUNCH of wiggle room, no?

Anyway, to get back to the topic, I don't know of anyone at WayWorld ever suggesting that the return of Christ was predictable. It was always worldly type events that they knew more about than anyone else. "The Father told me", was all that was needed to get everyone's attention...

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quote:
"The Father told me", was all that was needed to get everyone's attention...

Man, I hate it when people say that! To me it seems that the person is really saying, "Challenging me is challenging God and calling God a liar". It is so stupid and lame.

Reminds me of Pat Robertson - he is always saying stuff like that. So did my first WOW coordinator. There are one or two here that do that to sometimes.

Nowadays, if given opportunity, when I hear that I will ask, "Just exactly how did God tell you that? Was is audible, in a vision or a dream or did it just pop into your mind all of a sudden? - How do you know that is was really God telling you that?" Usually it is none of the above and the answer is "I just know it".

Not good enough.

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I can't discount that God can tell us something, as it has happened to me. It was for my understanding not someone else. And I agree with what Goey said on it being like a "challenge me" point.

But when you're sitting in the auditorium during a corps night teaching and LCM stops in mid-sentence to which we all stop breathing and from the stillness of the room out from his mouth the "river of understanding waters" came, well enough of it could have been true based on understanding so you bought it. He wasn't doing one of those (whatever her names is) that tells the future and didn't know she was going to be busted for charging her callers in excess of the fine print. Whatever the "Father told me" was often believable. Mixed in with our pure desire to believe he was that locked in to God.

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