rhino

Oh good, Jardinero is here :)-->

All these other places could take off I guess, but as I understand, they have been talking about that for at least 5 years, but it is still the US economy that is "the engine" for the world. Here is part of one article just from google...

"Low on fuel

But how can the world be weaned off its over-reliance on American spending without sending the global economy into recession?"

http://www.economist.com/surveys/showsurve...?issue=20030920

That was a couple years ago, but I think it is the same or worse now. The solution was for foreignors to buy more, and Americans less, but they thought that was unlikely.

Another article said many believe the economic slowdown point for the price of oil is $100, which is sorta what we have now because of the large "crack spread". :)--> I wish i could say I knew what that meant before about 5 minutes ago, but it is the spread between the barrel price and the refined price, which is extra wide right now. lol

Anyway, who knows? It would actually be good for everyone if all the world economies prospered, unless they do it by selling WMD's to terrorists.

Must be time to chat -->

quote:

Originally posted by Mister P-Mosh:

This time next year, quite a few experts are saying that it would not be a suprise if we had to pay over $4 or $5 a gallon.

Actually, I'm part of a political group that meets to discuss issues related to oil and such.

It would not surprise me if it was under $2 either. Why is a political group meeting to discuss oil prices? And which group?

The price spike had occured before Katrina. Then it spiked again. The pump price has increased almost twice as much as the barrel price increase. Just from a trading perspective, when prices have spiked up incredibly, and you hear people talking about them going to the moon ... that is the time to sell (if you weren't smart enough to sell earlier lol).

$4 or $5 at the pump would be crippling to the US economy. Since we are still the engine for the world, who will China sell to if not us? Their (and the world's?) production machine depends on our economy.

Anyway, just wanted to present an alternative view. I could very well be wrong :)-->

quote:

Originally posted by TheEvan:

But I have seen that work barge hundreds of times. ... it was, without fail, anchored to the Orleans wall of the canal.

I looked at a couple "before & after" pic's but no sign of the barge. If that was the cause, it must be there somewhere, and probably is in some of the footage. I'd think it would have been swept into the neighborhood. I did see a barge tied up by the bridge later, presumably for repairs ... I'm not sure if those fit under the bridge ... i guess they must ... oh, I see you said a crane was needed. Well maybe that was it.

Without some outside damage, it seems strange this recently improved section would be the weak point in the levee. I was considering contractor negligence in the building or design, maybe improper fill material that saved some politically connected contractor some money. But I'm pretty pessimistic. :)-->

Good to see you posting Evan, do you have power now I guess?

I read batteries only last slightly longer when stored in the fridge. But I'm really writing to endorse the idea of guns and liquor ... or beer.

I stayed thru a hurricane 3 day power outage in New Orleans with a few other people. I did have a gun, to protect myself and my stuff from pillaging hordes, but most important, we had alcohol. Something about being alone in the city in the dark focuses the mind on what you really might need.

Fill the tub with water, and a cooler or two with ice ... and have a party ... hurricane parties were popular in New Orleans. The fear of actually getting hit directly by the storm, or being looted, makes it even more exciting.

But I came up with the better solution, move to Illinois. Except we still get pretty hot, so I need to get enough money to spend summer in Maine. And we get pretty cold, so I need more money to spend winter in Florida. So the real thing to do for a hurricane, is have a lot of money. :)-->

quote:

Originally posted by TheEvan:

My sis-in-law lost her house we assume. It backs up to the 17th St. canal right where the original levee break was.

Glad you are safe Evan ... I had four friends with houses in that neighborhood. I was thinking they may be able to rebuild with at least the framing surviving, and maybe the wiring. Maybe even the ceilings if the water didn't get there. I'd seen repairs like that before in 4' flooding.

quote:

"We're having a real estate rush here. It's crazy, crowded, feverish. Time to adjust."

I hadn't thought about that. I guess surviving homes may be worth more now, though hard to say with the job market so messed up for a year or more. But with construction and clean-up, who knows?

Any word on Julie (used to be Lawrence)? She used to be in Metairie, which stayed a little dryer.

Great to hear linda .. let us know the rest of the story when you hear ...

gutsy move for them to stay behind ...

That is pretty dm :)-->

Do they keep it lit all the time?

quote:

Originally posted by Linda Z:

Thanks, Jard and TK...good to have some idea what's going on. Haven't heard much on the news about shortages except in the South.

They changed some laws to allow importation of refined oil temporarily, so it can go directly to the stations. refining is the bottleneck, even before katrina. I don't think we will see a shortage. Price is 3.09 in "downstate" Illinois (anywhere below chicago).

If you watch the market, oil by the barrel has come down a little after the storm, and even the refined has come down. "Buy the rumor, sell the news" is the maxim.

Haven't seen much on the state of refineries after the storm though, so it wouldn't hurt to at least keep the tank on the top half. Unfortunately, people get spooked and tend to stockpile at a time when the flow is interrupted, which just exacerbates the problem.

raf,

I wasn't serious about your degree, as I'd hoped you could tell. My point was how ridiculous it is to make personal attacks about someone you don't know just because you disagree. I was a horticulture major, how worthless is that? But if you need to know how far apart to plant carrots, I'm the man.

I still don't see how leaning very close to the monitor is going to help me understand better. It just makes my hair stand up and the words get blurry.

You seemed to say some sensible things about earthquakes not being weather events, so maybe there is still hope for you.

You survived the storm? Where were you? Or did you already tell this story?

Right 1000 names, we will carry on. Lest I be accused of being too positive, here is what I fear. The pics I saw on CNBC and other places, showing water flowing into the city, were actually shots of water flowing out over the levees. This is NOT good news.

The water was flowing from a "lake" with houses in it, down over a levee into a waterway with a bridge in it. Best I could tell, this was the industrial canal, it had a bridge that lifts up vertically. Wherever it was, it meant the water had filled the neighborhood to the height above the levee. This could only happen in the worst case "fill the bowl" scenario, where water tops the levee and fills inside.

If I am guessing correctly, this was New Orleans east (I lived there for a year) which is close to the twin span, where big sections of the bridge were knocked out. That would not be a case where the water rose slowly enough to allow easier escape, as in the broken levee. Maybe people on second floors would be ok. I have heard nothing about this area, but from satellite shots it seems inundated.

They were closer to the edge of the hurricane, closer to the big surge from the gulf ... the bridge by them had many sections knocked out whereas the causeway to the west did not ... I don't like what that adds up to ...

I hope I am really dumb and those people saying this was water flowing IN over the levees are correct. It was and still is shown repeatedly. I can't figure out how I am wrong.

"Lean in real close to the monitor, okay..."

AFTER the levee broke, there was still no way to tell how high the water would rise, so the experts who were talking gave best case and worse case scenarios, which were passed on by the media. That is our job. To pass on information. Hence the term "media."

OK, I was done, but you continue with these personal attacks, like "lean in real close" ... What is your degree, journalism? No one takes journalism majors seriously, I guess that is why you are so sensitive.

You act like the media never introduces their own ideology, and never sensationalize, like they are limb leaders that only speak directly for god ... how dare anyone question your authority.

There is no way the level was going above the lake level, that was knowable (by any intelligent person). The reports would conclude in ominous tones with something like "the bowl is filling" cue the threatening music ... fade to commercial ... It is theatre.

Did you look at the link?

Congrats on your promotion. Are you working Katrina?

quote]Your silliness in blaming the media for exaggerating something like this holds whether I am with the media or not.

I'm wondering if you are even reading what I'm talking about. Several sources said after the levee break that the water was going to rise through the night to a level that would have had to have been much higher than the lake itself. I said at the time (in other places) that it wasn't going to happen and it didn't. If even a dumb guy like me figured it out, how come the geniuses telling the story couldn't? Yes they did say it WOULD happen, not could. That is just one example, there are many others. And some media check their sources before they print it, which is why I read some and not others.

I'm posting here often because what I'm trying to get through seems so obvious ... guess not. Also I'm following the story closely since I know so many people there. (but I agree the school system needs work)

"Fortunately, no one was listening..."

"If people had listened, maybe more would have gotten out of there."

This is why I say you haven't even paid attention to what I've written. The "flood is coming" story I have referred to was after the levee broke. I've pointed that out each time ...

The Times-Picayune had a volleyball team in my league for years, and they were friends, so I don't think ALL the media is evil. ;)-->

Here is a link to a BBC graphic showing the elevations.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4208986.stm#map

CNN ran a similar graphic frequently, but left out the sea level line and cropped out the elevation markings on the side, leaving the impression that a broken levee would fill up the city. This is the sort of subtle misrepresentation of facts I'm referring to.

The same with the subtle language of saying they had to push bodies out of the way to get through, as opposed to they occasionally moved a body and secured it to a tree.

And that's all I have to say about that.

Raf ...

so you are a member of the media? That would explain why you are nit picking everything I say to defend them. You could have disclosed that earlier, I wouldn't have bothered trying to clarify.

Why do you say I don't even know what "media" means? You're saying the "media" never introduces personal bias? RIIIIGGGGHHHHHTTTT ... and they never hype a story, never focus on a negative ... ok Perhaps in this case they were just passing on bad information, but I thought a good reporter was supposed to verify their sources. No point in turning to personal attacks ... the word "media" is just a word, you don't get any extra credit for knowing it is the plural of "medium". lol

After the storm and levee break, "they" wrongly claimed the city was going to fill up like the fill the bowl scenario, in other words "run for your lives". Fortunately no one there was listening. The lower parts of the city that are 6' below reached maybe 3' above, which is why you see water at "roof gutter level". Other places never flooded.

My main point was that misinformation in times of catastrophy can be harmful. The good story of the media was pointing to the people in the convention center, which amazingly were overlooked. In that case, or cases like it, they can save lives.

Also everything I say is my opinion, so I could be wrong. I don't mind people pointing that out to me, unless it gets personal.

Hi Karmi'

Hmmm, I guess if there is any hostility, it is toward media that misrepresent the facts to make their story even more sensational. Also the media attack on the workers and politicians has been relentless.

If I were in a realitively stable and dry place in New Orleans the day after the storm, and then I heard on the news there would be another 10 feet of water coming in to all the city, what desperate measures might I take unnecessarily to get out of the way?

The talk of having to push bodies out of the way to get through was the first point I brought up ... it seemed to me they were saying there was a sea of bodies they had to push through. Maybe MSNBC has that footage, but I haven't seen anything like that. It sounded like another case of overstating the already grim reality, just to maybe boost ratings a little.

There are cases where the media does break through some political inertia, like showing groups of people that aren't getting water or getting troops deployed more quickly (maybe). Perhaps I just need to watch something other than CNN.

Most of my friends live in New Orleans, I assume most left early, but some hard heads probably stayed. I cleaned windows there for 15 years so had clients in most of the neghborhoods, all around the lake even. Maybe it is just a little too up close and personal for me.

Giving money to an honest charity is probably the best thing we can do to help. I don't think I ever hinted that we should not show compassion or concern. There can be a time though, when media hysterics becomes demoralizing. This is already an emotionally charged story.

Let me clarify ...the story I'm referring to was the day AFTER the surge, after the levee broke when the lake was only 6' above sea level, and falling. To tell people they were about to be inundated (again) was irresponsible.

The story was repeated so many times that evidently even reasonable people believed it. Much of the city is above sea level, which doesn't get mentioned. The graphic CNN kept showing basically shows the WHOLE city would fill up like a bowl, but the graphic showed the lake level topping the levees, which would only happen at maximum storm surge. At least after the initial surge, they could have figured out that flooding would only get as deep as the lake level, after the levee break. But why let the facts get in the way of a good story.

Of course eveyone should have been out before the storm ... that's not when I was talking about. Although it could be argued that the perfect storm did hit and the nightmare scenario of the city filling like a bowl, 20' deep, did not happen, even after the levee broke. But it was certainly close enough.

I don't get msnbc, and the convention center shots are still showing the same 2 people. I'm sure there are many more.

hey Raf,

well, maybe there are that many bodies ... I saw the one verbal account of them pushing bodies out of the way, but the pictures have not shown that. There were accounts of tying bodes to trees, but I still don't believe it was thick with bodies. Yes, 1000 is probably wishful, or hopeful ... but I prefer to hope for something better than what some are expecting and what the media almost seem to be salivating for.

Somehow I think if MSNBC had those really sick pics, they'd show them. The stories I've seen about all the dying at the convention center show the same woman. This news story is big business for these networks. There is so much misinformation, I don't see a reason to add to the emotional trauma with more rumor.

You may notice the 10' to 20' of water throughout the WHOLE city the media was hyping, never happened, even with the levee breaks. There is plenty of bad news without trying to make some up to get an edge on other news agencies. And 2 days into this, the media is all over complaining about the rescue efforts.

I think he was in New Orleans when I first came there ('85), and seemed like he was moving then ... but he seemed like a real cajun, so he may have been moving back into the bayou :)--> I bet he was smart enough to get away from trouble, if he stayed in the area. Would be nice to know though...

I think the governor or mayor said deaths in the hundreds or thousands, but they have no real clue. There have been bodies, but it is not like they have to push their way through them. I think they mark houses with a body with a red x, and may have tied some that were drifting to a solid object to collect later. Not pretty, but we simply don't details know yet. I'm hoping it is under 1000. A long road ahead ...

hey psalm

the storm did a lot of damage, but it wasn't a direct hit and it looked like things weren't too bad till the levee broke. That was after the storm though, and the slowly rising water gave most people time to get out and up I'd guess, but the flooding is massive now.

I guess the water is still up in the Lake. They say some large bridges are out ... news is still sketchy. They said both airports are under water. Last I saw the water wasn't that high in the Lake, musta been taped earlier. Even though the big buildings survived, where are all the workers going to live? They say 80% of the city is under water. This is a real mess.

hey George,

No, I moved back to Illinois 6 years ago, sat out a less devastating hurricane without power back then, with plans to stay in my 2nd floor aprtment near the lake... The levee breach would put that area in water now

Have you seen the news on New Orleans? Man ... the levee breach really messed things up ... hard to figure what is next there

george, I've been looking thru my blue Abundant sharing forms and have no record of your 10% minimum for the last 25 years. If you want to get right with the lord and get really blessed, I'll give you my address so I can send it in for you. (make it out to cash)

btw, this is not an subtle attempt at recruitment ... I just want you to get real blessed :)-->

I was in New Orleans last time it was mostly evacuated, we had no power for a couple of days, but did have alcohol ... which is very important ... Also i was in apartments near the lake, so a bunch of us hung out and went up to watch the waves and wind ... it was kinda fun, but it was no Katrina

Hi evan, I am that new orleans window cleaner ... hope all is well with you :)-->

Tom Tuttle ...let's see ... Tom Tom ...

I've got it, you're the piper's son! right?

Ok, you cribbed, so I guess that means you are black. And you repeated maany, maany ... so your name is manny. You are black manny the piper's son. That was easy.

of course, checking the aramaic, cribbed can also mean to plagiarize or cheat, so maybe you cheated on your aerobic points or spent more than your $20/month while in Uncle Harry, which means you could be anybody.

And as the train was pulling out of the station there in Jubblepor ... I said, whoa, whoa whoa, back up a minute ... that's what killed that little boy, you just quit yakking about anything else ...

hey jardinero, yes, i was wondering if I even spelled vociferous correctly :)--> I'll have to start using spell check so I don't expose my ignorance lol

yes kansasNOT, I make some wine, though am starting some vines for grapes to eat. This is the first year i have a decent crop. There is about 25 gallons on my porch, and another 25 in a plastic garbage can bubbling like crazy. I probably have another 500 pounds of grapes ready to pick ... I found a place that sells food grade plastic drums for $5. 100 gallons of wine ...mmmm good way to make friends :)--> Of course I can't promise it will be good wine

and yes, if you got to drink JD with anyone while in residence, that counts.

I assume you're talking about Evan P... he is in Baton Rouge, which is much better situated than New Orleans, though still not great. I lived in New Orleans for 15 years post twi, so have lotsa friends there. The "great flood" they talk about probably won't happen, but it could, and this looks exactly like the nightmare scenario. I hope I still have a place to stay if I wanna go to Mardi Gras :)-->