Fort Lauderdale is in the cone, technically, but the forecast is for this to miss us entirely. If you look at the map, you'll see a thick blue line on Florida's east coast. That's where tropical storm conditions (winds between 35 and 75 mph) MAY hit. The thick blue line ends due east of that big lake in the middle of the state. Fort Lauderdale is well south of that line.
So the short answer is: your daughter will be fine.
Note also that the cone has a calendar on it. You can see where it's forecast to hit at particular times. No telling how that will change (and it WILL change), but you can see that the current projection is for landfall on Saturday morning, well, well north of Fort Lauderdale. St. Augustine and Jacksonville seem to be the places to worry about at the moment, but as always with these storms, that could change with the next update.
quote:
MIAMI -- About 120 miles of Florida's Atlantic coast from Jupiter north to Titusville and Merritt Island were under a tropical storm warning Tuesday as a new system formed just offshore and threatened to dump up to 15 inches of rain in parts of the state.
The tropical depression could strengthen into Tropical Storm Ophelia by Wednesday, which prompted the warning from north of Jupiter to Titusville, according to the National Hurricane Center. It could bring tropical storm conditions of winds of at least 39 mph to the state by Wednesday morning.
``The primary concern is very heavy rains,'' hurricane specialist Richard Pasch said. Five to 10 inches were expected over the next few days, with some isolated areas possibly getting 15 inches.
Included in the warning were islands in the Bahamas chain, including Bimini, Grand Bahamas and the Abacos.
At 11 a.m. EDT, the depression had top sustained winds of about 30 mph and was centered about 180 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral. It wasn't moving, but it should start heading north-northwest later Tuesday.
Two other storms were out in the open ocean Tuesday as the busy hurricane season continues. Tropical Storm Nate intensified south of Bermuda, while Hurricane Maria weakened on its way to the colder waters of the north Atlantic.
Nate, the 14th named storm of the season, was centered about 275 miles south-southwest of Bermuda with top sustained winds near 60 mph. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said it could reach hurricane strength, with winds of at least 74 mph, by Wednesday.
It wasn't moving, though it was expected to eventually make a turn to the northeast, forecasters said.
``Perhaps by the end of the work week it could be posing a threat to Bermuda, but not the U.S.,'' hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart said.
Maria peaked late Monday as a Category 3 hurricane with top wind speeds at 115 mph. By 11 a.m. EDT, it was centered about 545 miles east-northeast of Bermuda with winds near 100 mph, forecasters said.
The hurricane was only a threat to shipping interests as it moved north-northeast near 7 mph, forecasters said.
Maria is the fifth hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season. The season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30. Peak storm activity typically occurs from the end of August through mid-September.
It may miss Lauderdale, but it looks like it's going toward Daytona (where my daughter is). It's only supposed to be a ts, so no worry there. Can we still have a hurricane party Raf or do we have to wait for the next one?
Looks like the feeder bands are coming already. My daughter's getting some and it looks like they're coming this way. Here, I thought that it was just the 4pm rains. According to the stats, another weekend, another storm. Raf, who's Ophelia's big brother behind her. He looks better formed. Can't you see it now. The howling wind, the palm trees bending, the rain coming down sideways. At least we're getting the west side of the storm instead of the the eastern. Just another day in paradise. :)-->
Well, I remember TS Alberto years ago that went through Georgia (I was stationed in Warner Robins at the time). Even though it never became a hurricane, it managed to dump enough moisture in the state to cause massive flooding, damage, and a few deaths.
(That was, btw, my first time having to deal head on with posse commitatus issues and federal/state military relations. I was in the 5th Combat Comm Group...we had sandbags galore, as well as plenty of tactical vehicles that would have no problem making it through the deep water of the floods, but we had to go through all kinds of a nutroll to be able to help augment the state guard in accomplishing the mission...and this was back in, as memory serves, in either '93 or '94 time frame...)
Anyway, y'all be careful. Even though there may not be high winds, they can still cause problems...particularly if they're slow moving...
Hey Raf. TD #? has officially been upgraded to TS O and predicted to become a cat 1 by Friday. Now can I talk about the half halo cloud formation in the sky this morning and the rains expected NOT at 4pm?
BTW, since it's not near you, can the party be further north? There are more of us here in the Tampa/St Pete, Orlando area? Please (see, I'm even being polite)
Now, to get back to important things, the hurricane party. If it would be like her, we might as well stay at the Don Cesar or the Belleview Biltmore and do it up right.
Yeah, I saw where the forcast computers had many different scenarios....4 showed it heading out to sea and harmless...aprox 4 showed it swinging back around and clobbering Fla.....and 4 showed it going over fla and hitting the same area that katrina just devistated....
I just get the feeling this one's going to come right for us. I don't know, maybe I'm an optimist. I keep telling everyone here to get their shutters ready. No one wants to believe me.
It's getting closer to me. Looks like my daughter is getting slammed. Last time I looked at NOAA, she had sustained winds of 50 mph and she's not getting any weaker. By the time we get hit, she'll be in all her glory.
Officially, Fort Lauderdale is not worried. Unofficially, the current track takes the storm away from Florida, then backing up and hitting either North or Central Florida. If either happens, the effects here will be minimal. In any event, we have nothing to worry about down here until at the earliest, NEXT Friday or Saturday.
Ophelia is now officially a hurricane at 75 mph. Some of the off-shore bands have dropped 12 inches of rain. I talked to my daughter and they are getting pounded. So far, it's just been sitting there. It really isn't too early to pray. I really don't feel like evacuatng again, but after last year, I've got it down to a science. Considering all things, fellow Floridians, we still got it good compared to the weather in other places.
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Raf
Forgive the all caps: it's how the Hurricane Center sends out its tropical storm warnings.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO
TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA...
THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.
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likeaneagle
Raf-
ummm. is this heading to Ft. Lauderdale this week or next? My daughter is heading out there tomorrow?
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likeaneagle
Raf-
My daughter is driving to Ft. Lauderdale tomorrow...is this storm heading there?
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Raf
Fort Lauderdale is in the cone, technically, but the forecast is for this to miss us entirely. If you look at the map, you'll see a thick blue line on Florida's east coast. That's where tropical storm conditions (winds between 35 and 75 mph) MAY hit. The thick blue line ends due east of that big lake in the middle of the state. Fort Lauderdale is well south of that line.
So the short answer is: your daughter will be fine.
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Raf
Note also that the cone has a calendar on it. You can see where it's forecast to hit at particular times. No telling how that will change (and it WILL change), but you can see that the current projection is for landfall on Saturday morning, well, well north of Fort Lauderdale. St. Augustine and Jacksonville seem to be the places to worry about at the moment, but as always with these storms, that could change with the next update.
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moony3424
It may miss Lauderdale, but it looks like it's going toward Daytona (where my daughter is). It's only supposed to be a ts, so no worry there. Can we still have a hurricane party Raf or do we have to wait for the next one?
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Raf
Tropical storms are like the bratty little brother of hurricanes. A pain to deal with, but you'd rather deal with him than big brother.
Hurricane Party at Lulu's Bait Shack, midnight tonight. See you there (actually, I won't, but whatever).
:)-->
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Raf
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moony3424
Looks like the feeder bands are coming already. My daughter's getting some and it looks like they're coming this way. Here, I thought that it was just the 4pm rains. According to the stats, another weekend, another storm. Raf, who's Ophelia's big brother behind her. He looks better formed. Can't you see it now. The howling wind, the palm trees bending, the rain coming down sideways. At least we're getting the west side of the storm instead of the the eastern. Just another day in paradise.
:)-->
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Raf
I believe that's Nate to the east. He'll head up north by the time the night is out.
Feeder bands? Not in a TD. They don't call them feeder bands until it's at least a tropical storm, which this is not. At least, not yet.
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markomalley
Well, I remember TS Alberto years ago that went through Georgia (I was stationed in Warner Robins at the time). Even though it never became a hurricane, it managed to dump enough moisture in the state to cause massive flooding, damage, and a few deaths.
(That was, btw, my first time having to deal head on with posse commitatus issues and federal/state military relations. I was in the 5th Combat Comm Group...we had sandbags galore, as well as plenty of tactical vehicles that would have no problem making it through the deep water of the floods, but we had to go through all kinds of a nutroll to be able to help augment the state guard in accomplishing the mission...and this was back in, as memory serves, in either '93 or '94 time frame...)
Anyway, y'all be careful. Even though there may not be high winds, they can still cause problems...particularly if they're slow moving...
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moony3424
Hey Raf. TD #? has officially been upgraded to TS O and predicted to become a cat 1 by Friday. Now can I talk about the half halo cloud formation in the sky this morning and the rains expected NOT at 4pm?
BTW, since it's not near you, can the party be further north? There are more of us here in the Tampa/St Pete, Orlando area? Please (see, I'm even being polite)
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Raf
I think this one's going to pull a Jeanne on us, start moving away, then loop right back and WHAM!
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moony3424
Wonderful. Just what we need.
:(-->
Now, to get back to important things, the hurricane party. If it would be like her, we might as well stay at the Don Cesar or the Belleview Biltmore and do it up right.
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Raf
By the way, I just found out what a circular cone means: It means forecasters don't have the slightest idea what will happen.
Well, not really, but it does mean the forecast models vary wildly and the path is even more unpredictable than usual.
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rascal
Yeah, I saw where the forcast computers had many different scenarios....4 showed it heading out to sea and harmless...aprox 4 showed it swinging back around and clobbering Fla.....and 4 showed it going over fla and hitting the same area that katrina just devistated....
Whew
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moony3424
At this point, if it went over Florida, Polk County will get slammed again just like last year they did with Charlie, Francis, Ivan, and Jeanne.
So, where should we make reservations? I always (really) at least go out for hurricane dinner (but have to call ahead to make sure something is open).
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Raf
I just get the feeling this one's going to come right for us. I don't know, maybe I'm an optimist. I keep telling everyone here to get their shutters ready. No one wants to believe me.
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moony3424
It's getting closer to me. Looks like my daughter is getting slammed. Last time I looked at NOAA, she had sustained winds of 50 mph and she's not getting any weaker. By the time we get hit, she'll be in all her glory.
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likeaneagle
Hi Floridians..can you keep me posted as to How Ophelia is doing in Ft. Lauderdale area. My daughter will be arriving late Friday....
You guy's are the best.
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Raf
Officially, Fort Lauderdale is not worried. Unofficially, the current track takes the storm away from Florida, then backing up and hitting either North or Central Florida. If either happens, the effects here will be minimal. In any event, we have nothing to worry about down here until at the earliest, NEXT Friday or Saturday.
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moony3424
Ophelia is now officially a hurricane at 75 mph. Some of the off-shore bands have dropped 12 inches of rain. I talked to my daughter and they are getting pounded. So far, it's just been sitting there. It really isn't too early to pray. I really don't feel like evacuatng again, but after last year, I've got it down to a science. Considering all things, fellow Floridians, we still got it good compared to the weather in other places.
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Raf
You'll also notice, likeaeagle, that Fort Lauderdale IS in the 5 day cone (the larger circle, not the white one).
And a circle, again, means forecasters are absurdly unsure of where this is headed.
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moony3424
Again, look at last year. Just hours before Charlie was supposed to hit where I was, it turned and hit Punta Gorda.
Raf, it you had to evacuate, where would you go (or would you)?
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