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The cone of Isaias

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Yeah yeah, it's headed right for us.

I'm not going to do what I've normally done, which is to post the web site so that it automatically updates.

Instead, I'm going to grab still frames so we can compare the forecast to the actual path. How precise is the forecast five days out?

Let's see. At this projection, landfall on Florida soil is Sunday.


Isaias 1.png

Edited by Raf
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If those maps are correct, it's BEEN pointed west, but they keep predicting it will turn east and go up central Florida.     If that's normally what happens, then it makes sense.  Otherwise, it looks ready to hit the Emerald Coast and the Gulf of Mexico.  Frankly, it might be pointed at New Orleans, but I'd need a bigger map to know.

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Tuesday afternoon's forecast predicted, at worst, 50 mph winds and big time rain and squalls Sunday Monday. We've had worse summer thunderstorms and low pressure systems stuck over us for days here in South Florida (Hi Raf). The track up the peninsula like Irma from Sept 2017 is eerie. My experience tells me, after 30 years in S Florida, that it's the Canes in September- October that are usually the fiercest and sometimes they come one after another. Dorian last year was nerve wracking as we waited for that Cat 5 to hit us. We were spared its awful destructive wrath, but the Bahamians weren't. The watching and waiting is killer on Cat 3's and above.

This is just a Tropical Storm at best. The anxiety of waiting for the big ones as they approach is no fun I assure you. And, the aftermath of no electricity (air conditioning) sometimes for  weeks in the super intense heat and humidity is no fun. No ice, either, so I've had to toss my entire freezer and frig contents out several times since Francis and Jeanne in '04 and Wilma in '05.

Remember, they can turn on a dime.

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This thing is going to affect California more than Florida at this rate.

Anyway, going straight up Florida would be preferable. Over water gives it more time to strengthen.

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And a little MORE east.

Watch out, Ireland!

Just kidding. Our web site had an article today demonstrating that the projected path five days out is usually not horribly accurate but the cone generally is.

It was something.

But look at how much farther east it is compared to the forecast just early yesterday. Sheesh. Now it's supposed to strengthen into a hurricane.




Isaias 4.png

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Hello, boys and girls. Today's word is "wobble," as in, the path of a hurricane is not really a straight line, as maps might lead you to believe. If you were to see a real extreme closeup of these storms, you would see that they don't so much move in a straight line as they wobble a little to the east and the west and the north and the south. You see, they don't know they're hurricanes. They are driven by atmospheric pressure and larger wind currents. Ever fly a kite? Notice how when you're bringing it back down to you, it goes back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. It doesn't just return to you the way, say, a fishing line (with no fish) would. Yeah, hurricanes are like those kites. Yeah, the jetstream is driving its overall direction, but it goes back and forth, back and forth. (The jetstream doesn't know it's a jetstream. Shhh. Don't tell it). 

Anyway, those H markers that you see on the map in that nice simple pattern? Look how far apart they are in time. 12 hours between H's. And in those 12 hours? Back and forth... back and forth.

The line in the middle of the cone is approximately the center of where they think the eye of the storm is going to be. But a little wobble west at the right time and my neighborhood is getting pounded. A little wobble east, and my lawn might not need watering on Saturday.

So that's today's lesson. There won't be a test.


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"Funny" that it's projected to hit places that were in the cone when we started keeping track but were OUT of the cone as recently as two days ago.

Isaias 5.png

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Well, that was a big bust.

Close as it came to Broward, there was ZERO panic.

I should add there was zero hype.

A yawner for us so far.

Anyone else near the path, please keep your eyes open and be prepared.



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