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Atlantic Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch 2020


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This just in: Nana has changed course and is now headed for the local bingo hall.

I'm sure you're all wise and savvy enough to pick your own charities to support at this time. I'm sending my relief donation to the Foundation Beyond Belief.  https://foundationbeyondbelief.org/c

I usually just right-click the image to copy it and then paste it here.  Apparently, that copies all the embedded information, as well. George

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The one in the Gulf and the one off the Carolina coast are expected to be rainmakers, but not much else.  Our local weathercasters are a bit more concerned with the one east of Florida, as it might cross Florida and be more of a problem in the Gulf.  Paulette COULD impact the Eastern Seaboard, but it's too early to tell.

George

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Thanks, George. Brace yourselves, LA!

Do we have anyone there who can keep us apprised of the need for assistance after the storm passes?

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Seven systems.

Paulette: Nothing for us in the USA to worry about.
Rene: Down to a tropical depression but moving southwest toward warmer waters, so yeah, I'm looking at this one with a few lines on my forehead.
Sally: Dumped a ton of rain on my area Saturday, but not so bad for us. Good luck Louisiana.
Teddy: Headed for major hurricane status in the middle of nowhere. Keep an eye out.Next week could get hairy if it jogs west.
Then we have yellow X near Tex-ico, not likely to do much.
TD 21 should become Tropical Storm Vicky today before dropping back down to depression status, then marching west. DEFINITELY something to keep an eye on.
Finally, yellow X off the coast of Africa. It's given a 40 percent chance of formation within five days.

 

Whew
image.png

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Ok, so just when I thought I wasn't going to worry about Paulette anymore, here's her forecast cone.

WTAF.

If it keeps heading south it could conceivably make another westward turn and threaten the US coast again. It could also sprout wings and zip over Africa on its way to Australia. What do I know. My point is, it's not dead yet.

image.png

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5 hours ago, Raf said:

Ok, so just when I thought I wasn't going to worry about Paulette anymore, here's her forecast cone.

WTAF.

If it keeps heading south it could conceivably make another westward turn and threaten the US coast again. It could also sprout wings and zip over Africa on its way to Australia. What do I know. My point is, it's not dead yet.

image.png

Just to the east of that cone (Fri night to Sat night) sits the Azores Islands. Some 45 years ago or so, I endured a few hurricanes... with horizontal rain and one storm wherein we got 8 inches of rain in two hours in early October one year. I was there for about three years. I hope this storm dissipates soon and doesn't damage anything in the Azores.

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The blob in the southern Gulf will probably develop.  Right now, they have no idea which way it will go.  It may just drift into Mexico, or head north.  There's a cold front coming through Texas which could pick it up and drag it east.  To Louisiana.

George

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12 hours ago, Raf said:

Trying to figure out how we went from "Paulette is a hurricane and here's the track and it will be a tropical storm through Sunday" to "Nevermind, it's gone" in about 12 hours. Sheesh.

Looks like it was the old "extratropical transition" trick... missed it by... that much.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Paulette

Paulette developed from a tropical wave on September 7. Due to relatively favorable conditions, Paulette gradually strengthened into a strong tropical storm, though an increase in wind shear caused it to weaken. Wind shear continued to increase to the south of the system, but despite the shear, Paulette unexpectedly strengthened back into a strong tropical storm on September 11, with deep convection located just north of the center. A dry air inclusion caused the cyclone's structure to become disheveled on September 12, though Paulette quickly recovered and strengthened into a hurricane at 03:00 UTC on September 13. Paulette then developed a closed eyewall and a clear eye as it steadily strengthened and moved towards Bermuda. Early on September 14th, Paulette made landfall in northeastern Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane while making a sharp turn to the north. It then further strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane as it moved away from the island, reaching its peak intensity on September 14 with of 105 mph (165 km/h) winds and a pressure of 965 mbar (28.50 inHg). On the evening of September 15, it began to weaken and undergo extratropical transition, which it completed on September 16.

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I thought I posted this already, but here's the latest.  Apparently, Alpha already appeared (and disappeared!), so TD 22 is now Beta.  The last time we hit the Greek alphabet, we got to Epsilon, but that was really late in the year (maybe even the following January...).

Beta is still wobbling around, but it's expected to hit the Texas coast somewhere (unless a cold front drags it to Louisiana).

two_atl_0d0.png?182308

George

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Next up, Wilfred. After which we officially run out of names. Last time that happened was 2005. Wilma. Beat the living daylights out of my neck of the woods.

Where was I? Oh, right, Wilfred. Nothing to see here (yet?)

Screenshot_20200918-224737_Chrome.jpg

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