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The Cones of 2021


Raf
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Honestly, I don't even remember the first four named storms of the season.

But here's Elsa as forecast mid afternoon on July 1. It will be interesting to see is the track stays within the cone.

 

image.png

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We don't name earthquakes, tornados, blizzards, tsunamis?

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/storm-names.html#:~:text=Storms are given short%2C distinctive names to avoid confusion and streamline communications&text=In 1953%2C the United States,storms in the Atlantic basin.

 

Seems personal.  Like they want to be remembered.   I often work to forget names.

 

Any storm can damage property and take lives. . . . Hurricanes come for the soul . . 

 

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image.png

 

Not a lot of shift in the last 24 hours. The Tues/8 a.m. position is a touch closer to land.

For those who don't recall: I am on the east coast of Florida, so I will get some effects, but this forecast still puts us far from the worst of it.

That said, the actual path could be anywhere in the cone and still be a good prediction. In other words, I won't know it's missing us until after it misses us.

For those in the path, please get your prep in!

Raf

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image.png

 

Looks like the main difference between this morning's track and the previous one I posted is the speed of the storm: It will now be, at 2 p.m., where it was earlier predicted to be at 8 a.m. That means it's slowing down and. depending on the water temperature, it will have time to pick up some speed.

FWIW.


Stay safe.

 

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  • 1 month later...

Sorry I dropped the ball on Henri.

Meet Ida. Or Julian. There are two storms out there, and this one's name will depend on which becomes a Tropical Storm first.

The other one is nothing to worry about from what I can tell. This is the doozy.

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This image should continue to update:

cone graphic

At first, one of the models indicated landfall around Brownsville, TX, but now the models seems to be converging on LA.  As if they didn't get enough last year.  Of course, it's still 3-4 days out.  It COULD drift west...

George

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