Jump to content
GreaseSpot Cafe
Sign in to follow this  
Raf

The Cone of Dorian

Recommended Posts

See that lake in the lower middle of Florida? The higher north of that lake, the better off I am. But there are other GSers who are in Florida as well, so if you're going to pray, make it that everyone is safe and not that the storm goes one way or another.

205152_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like it will be a Cat-4 when it makes landfall. Would be a good idea for anyone living in that area to evacuate. Last year there were many people killed in Mexico Beach, FL who decided to ride out Hurricane Michael.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the oddest courses I've seen in a storm. At this stage I'd be more worried if I lived in London than I am here in South Florida.

Carolinas, be prepared. These shifting cones won't last forever

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Point of clarification:

The graphic in the opening post is live and linked to the national hurricane center. That means when they update the forecast, the graphic in the opening post will change to reflect it.

So if you see us all posting about something that makes no sense when you look at the map, that's why.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dorian's a Cat 5 now, so even f it doesn't make landfall, there will be significant impact on the coastal areas.  I'm keeping all of you in my prayers.

George

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm finding this picture from the National Hurricane Center a bit disconcerting.

In addition to Dorian, we have a disturbance SE of Texas with about a 50% chance of tropical development, and an even more likely storm coming off the coast of Africa.

It is that time of year, I suppose.

George

 

two_atl_0d0.png?021757

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The orange X is trending west or west-southwest, so the southeastern most part of Texas should keep a close watch, but the rest of the state seems fairly ok. As always, that could change as the hours pass.

The red x (easternmost as of this writing) is the one I'm concerned about. I wasn't worried about Dorian until our supermarkets were raided, and I was underprepared for my family. Fortunately, we're only getting a token hit (a few gusty thunderstorms every few hours. Nothing we're not used to in the summertime/rainy season).

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm a bit concerned for central Texas because I know people who live there.

People everywhere panic and raid the supermarkets at the report of bad weather.    That concerns me less nowadays because A) we're comfortable cooking or just microwaving if we need to       B) I have some supermarkets and places to buy food within 3 blocks           C)  My neighbors don't worry about hurricanes because they haven't come this way for quite some time, if ever  So, we get heavy storms that leave within 12-24 hours depending on the severity, in the worse-case.    

As for the rest of you, stay careful out there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As Raf mentioned, the disturbance in the Gulf seems to be headed off to Mexico.  (I didn't realize that the picture I inserted was also a "hot" link, showing current conditions.)

I know for a fact, though, that Harvey is still on folks' minds, here. 

George

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So.
Dorian spared my neck of the woods, but for everyone else on the coast, keep your eyes open and stay safe. 

Fernand (the storm George discussed) looks like it will not reach hurricane strength but it is a tropical storm now and will hit Mexico as one. By the time its remnants hit south Texas, it doesn't look like it will be much more than a nuisance.

As always, that forecast could change.

Here's Fernand's cone:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/174935.shtml?cone#contents

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That part of the Mexican coast is pretty sparsely populated, so even when Fermand makes landfall, it shouldn't impact too many people. 

When the massive Hurricane Gilbert hit 30 years ago, it went ashore about the same place.  The only casualties from that one were people on a bus, evacuating, which fell into a river.

George

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I should amend that.  Gilbert did a LOT of damage to Jamaica and the Yucatan.  Its impact was much less, though, when it hit the main Mexico coast.

George

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...