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The cones of 2022


GeorgeStGeorge
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So at this point it looks like I'm on the outskirts of this storm. It won't be great for us, but it could be a whole lot worse. I'm on the southeast coast of Florida, and this storm (Hermine? Ian?) Is headeded up the west coast of the state. That means a lot of wind and rain, but hurricane conditions? Ok, maybe...

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image.pngOk, so NOW i'm not in the cone at all. Not even close to it.

And it you look at the lower map, it looks like i'll have perfect kite flying weather as far as wind is concerned.

 

Not sure about rain.

If you're in the path and need help, let us know.

 

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20 minutes ago, GeorgeStGeorge said:

The current map (Wed. 11 AM EDT) indicates that Ian will go from a major hurricane to a tropical storm by early Thursday.  Good news, such as it is.

George

Not very good news. It means the storm sits still for hours and hours, weakening, yes, but starting as a major hurricane and pounding away until it's out of energy. It would be one thing if it moved, like Wilma did, bang-pow-out-of-town. But this one is just going to sit there for hours upon hours until it's out of steam. That's no relief to anyone except those who WOULD be in its path if it kept moving forward (Georgia and South Carolina are projected to get a Tropical Storm out of this).

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I remember an old rule of thumb that inches of rainfall is approximately 60 divided by the translational (not rotational) speed of the storm.  So, if it moves 5 mph, you get about a foot of rain.  The map says that the speed is 9 mph, so one might estimate 7 inches of rain. That assumes, of course, that the storm doesn't slow down.  Assuming Florida is 160 mi wide at that point, and the storm travels NE, its path across land will be about 224 miles.  The storm map estimates that the storm will be over land for about 30 hours, so that would give an average of 7.5 mph, or 8 inches of rain.  It will be interesting to see how well the rule of thumb predicts actual rainfall.

This estimate, of course, does not predict other hazards of the storm, such as wind damage and storm surge.

Hang in there.  :anim-smile:

George

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Hang in there Floridians!

I was watching the news the other night – it was unreal – the reporter is standing just inside a parking garage, and it looks like he’s in a wind tunnel!
And now I’m hearing Ian can intensify again
 

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2 hours ago, T-Bone said:

Hang in there Floridians!

I was watching the news the other night – it was unreal – the reporter is standing just inside a parking garage, and it looks like he’s in a wind tunnel!
And now I’m hearing Ian can intensify again
 

Apparently, it's expected to be a (minor, if that means anything) hurricane before it hits the Carolina coast.

When a storm is in the Gulf, one refers to a "dirty" side (north and east of the eye) and the "dry" side (west), because of the counter-clockwise rotation of the winds.  That doesn't apply to an Atlantic storm, though, because now the counter-clockwise flow brings in Atlantic water.  Florida gets pounded, no matter which side of the peninsula the storm resides.

George

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We're lucky to be okay here, no property damage, no flooding in our neighborhood  and we have power. Beyond grateful, but it's totally shocking and sad to see what's happened in our state.

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Reminds me of Harvey, a few years ago.  I never lost power, gas, water, phone or internet (though satellite TV was spotty).  Flood waters came halfway up my driveway, then receded.  Lots of people had it a LOT worse.  Be thankful for your situation, and do what you can to help the less blessed.  No "survivor guilt," though.  That doesn't help anyone.

George

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