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The cones of 2022


GeorgeStGeorge
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So at this point it looks like I'm on the outskirts of this storm. It won't be great for us, but it could be a whole lot worse. I'm on the southeast coast of Florida, and this storm (Hermine? Ian?) Is headeded up the west coast of the state. That means a lot of wind and rain, but hurricane conditions? Ok, maybe...

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20 minutes ago, GeorgeStGeorge said:

The current map (Wed. 11 AM EDT) indicates that Ian will go from a major hurricane to a tropical storm by early Thursday.  Good news, such as it is.

George

Not very good news. It means the storm sits still for hours and hours, weakening, yes, but starting as a major hurricane and pounding away until it's out of energy. It would be one thing if it moved, like Wilma did, bang-pow-out-of-town. But this one is just going to sit there for hours upon hours until it's out of steam. That's no relief to anyone except those who WOULD be in its path if it kept moving forward (Georgia and South Carolina are projected to get a Tropical Storm out of this).

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I remember an old rule of thumb that inches of rainfall is approximately 60 divided by the translational (not rotational) speed of the storm.  So, if it moves 5 mph, you get about a foot of rain.  The map says that the speed is 9 mph, so one might estimate 7 inches of rain. That assumes, of course, that the storm doesn't slow down.  Assuming Florida is 160 mi wide at that point, and the storm travels NE, its path across land will be about 224 miles.  The storm map estimates that the storm will be over land for about 30 hours, so that would give an average of 7.5 mph, or 8 inches of rain.  It will be interesting to see how well the rule of thumb predicts actual rainfall.

This estimate, of course, does not predict other hazards of the storm, such as wind damage and storm surge.

Hang in there.  :anim-smile:

George

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